XAU/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 16/11/2018 – 23/11/2018

The pair XAU/USD is still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1237.10.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant from corrections below the level of 1237.10 with a target of 1182.23 – 1159.51.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1237.10 will allow the pair to continue rising to a level of 1263.50.

Analysis: Supposedly, a downward impetus 1 finished developing within the wave (C) of senior level on the daily time frame. On H4 time-frame, apparently, an upward correction has finished developing in the form of the plane-shaped wave 2 of C, and the first wave of junior level i of 3 is developing. Presumably the wave (iii) of i has been formed on H1 time frame, and a local correction (iv) of i is developing. If the presumption is correct, the pair will logically drop to the  levels 1182.23 – 1159.51 once the correction is over. The level 1237.10 is critical in this scenario.