XAU/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 02/11/2018 – 09/11/2018

The XAU/USD downtrend is likely to continue. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1243.15.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant from corrections below the level of 1243.15 with a target of 1182.23 – 1159.51.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1243.15 will allow the pair to continue rising to the level of 1263.50.

Analysis: Supposedly, a downward momentum 1 finished developing within the wave (C) of senior level on the daily time frame. Apparently, on H4 time frame, an upward correction finished forming in the form of wave 2 of (C) that took the form of a plane. Presumably, the wave 3 starts developing in the hourly timeframe, with first wave of junior level (i) of I formed inside.  If the presumption is correct, the price will continue falling to the levels of 1182.23 – 1159.51. The level 1243.15. is critical in this scenario.