XAU/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 18/01/2019 – 25/01/2019

The pair XAU/USD is still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1367.75.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant below the level of 1367.75 with a target of 1159.50 – 1097.76.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1367.75 will allow the pair to continue rising to a level of 1400.00 and higher.

Analysis: Supposedly, the wave (C) of senior level continues developing on the daily time frame, with the wave 1 of (C) formed inside. On H4 time-frame, apparently, an upward correction is nearing completion in the form of the wave 2 of (C), with the wave c of 2 developing inside. Supposedly, the local correction of junior level (iv) of с of 2 is nearing completion on the H1 time frame. If the presumption is correct, once the wave (v) of c of 2 has finished developing, the pair will start dropping to the levels of 1159.50 – 1097.76 in the long term. The level 1367.75 is critical in this scenario.